Steel Scrap Price Trend Q3 2026: How China and India Compare

Introduction

Steel scrap just posted a wide gap between China and India, and it's the kind of number worth pausing on. July 2026 data puts China at USD 345.80/MT on an FOB basis. India comes in far higher at USD 452.61/MT CIF. That's not a small spread. It's over a hundred dollars a ton, and anyone buying at volume feels that difference fast.

Scrap steel isn't a side story in the metals world. It feeds electric arc furnaces, it cuts virgin ore demand, and it's become a genuine cost lever for construction and manufacturing across Asia. When the steel scrap price trend shifts this much between two major buyers, something structural is going on underneath it.

Current Steel Scrap Prices: China vs India

Subtract one from the other and you get USD 106.81/MT. That's a big enough gap to change sourcing decisions on its own.

A few notes before jumping to conclusions:

• China's price is FOB, meaning it covers the cost of goods loaded onto the vessel at the origin port. Freight and insurance aren't included.

• India's is CIF, so freight and insurance are already built into that number.

• Both figures reflect July 2026 only. Scrap steel is a volatile commodity, and prices this specific can shift within days depending on export flows.

FOB and CIF aren't directly comparable in the strict sense. Part of that USD 106.81 gap comes from the incoterm itself, not just underlying market conditions. Still, side by side, these two numbers give a real sense of where each market stands right now.

Why Steel Scrap Prices Move the Way They Do

A handful of forces sit behind most scrap price swings. None of them work alone.

Export policy plays a bigger role than people expect. China has tightened scrap export flows at various points to protect domestic supply for its own steelmakers. Fewer tons leaving the country tends to push export-facing prices around, even without any change in global demand.

Domestic steel output matters too. India's electric arc furnace capacity has been expanding, and that growth pulls in more scrap from abroad. Heavy reliance on imports, paired with limited domestic recycling infrastructure, keeps India's landed cost structurally higher than China's.

Freight costs deserve their own mention. Bulk shipping rates, port delays, container availability. All of it shows up in the CIF number specifically, since freight is baked directly into that price.

Currency swings can't be ignored either. Scrap trades in dollars. A weaker rupee raises the real cost for Indian buyers even if the dollar price hasn't moved a cent.

Quick Questions Buyers Are Asking

Is China's lower price actually cheaper to buy from?

Not automatically. FOB means the buyer still covers freight and insurance separately. Once those costs get added on, the real landed price in China might land closer to India's than the raw numbers suggest.

Why does India import so much scrap instead of producing it domestically?

India's domestic scrap collection and recycling network hasn't kept pace with its growing steel output. Until that infrastructure matures, imports fill the gap, and that dependency keeps prices elevated.

Does this price gap affect finished steel costs?

Yes, with a lag. Scrap feeds directly into EAF-based steel production. When scrap costs rise, finished steel prices tend to follow within a few weeks to a couple of months.

What This Means for Buyers and Investors

Procurement teams sourcing scrap should look past the headline FOB number from China. Freight, insurance, port handling, contract terms. All of that closes the real-world gap between the two markets more than the raw figures let on.

Investors watching ferrous metals might read India's higher landed cost as a signal. Domestic scrap processing capacity in India still has room to grow, and that gap represents a real opportunity for companies building out collection and recycling infrastructure locally.

Steel producers and fabricators should treat this spread as an input cost warning. Rising scrap prices tend to show up in finished steel pricing not long after. Tracking this now gives procurement and finance teams a head start on budgeting.

Looking Ahead: Q3 2026 Outlook

Where this goes next depends on a few moving pieces. China's export policy stance could shift again depending on domestic steel demand. India's import reliance likely continues unless recycling capacity scales up meaningfully within the quarter.

Buyers locking in long-term contracts based on July figures alone take on real risk. Scrap markets move fast, and a hundred-dollar gap today doesn't guarantee the same gap next month. Checking current pricing before finalizing any deal remains the safer approach.

Conclusion

The steel scrap price trend for Q3 2026 shows a clear divide. China sits at USD 345.80/MT FOB, India at USD 452.61/MT CIF, both as of July 2026. That USD 106.81 gap reflects export policy, import dependency, and freight structure working together, not random market noise. Procurement teams, investors, and steel producers tracking ferrous metals should keep this trend on their radar heading further into the quarter.

FAQ Section

What is the current steel scrap price trend in China and India?

As of July 2026, China's steel scrap price sits at USD 345.80/MT FOB, while India's is USD 452.61/MT CIF. The gap reflects export policy differences, freight costs, and India's heavier reliance on imported scrap versus domestic supply.

Why is steel scrap more expensive in India than in China?

India's price includes freight and insurance since it's quoted CIF, unlike China's FOB figure. India also imports a larger share of its scrap needs due to limited domestic recycling capacity, which pushes the landed cost higher than China's export price.

What factors drive changes in steel scrap prices?

Export policy, domestic steel production levels, freight rates, and currency movements all play a role. China's export restrictions and India's growing electric arc furnace capacity are two of the bigger structural factors shaping the current price gap between the two markets.

How volatile is the steel scrap market?

Fairly volatile. Prices can shift within days based on export flows, shipping availability, and demand from steelmakers. The July 2026 figures offer a useful reference point, but buyers should pull updated pricing before committing to large contracts.

What's the outlook for steel scrap prices in Q3 2026?

The China-India gap likely persists through Q3 2026 unless China eases export restrictions or India scales up domestic recycling capacity. Currency trends and global steel demand will also influence whether the spread widens or narrows over the coming months.